![]() ![]() They expect the Fed to raise its target rate to 5.25%-5.5% at the July 25-26 meeting. "While incoming data point to resilience in activity and stickiness in inflation, the Fed appears to want additional time to monitor policy lags and regional bank stress," they wrote. ![]() Over at Bank of America, economists have come down on the same side as Wrightson, though they said it was a close call. The Fed will likely “leave rates unchanged but warn that additional tightening is still possible in the months ahead,” analysts at Wrightson ICAP said in predicting the Fed's benchmark overnight lending rate would sit pat at 5-5.25%.īut, reflecting the hard time the team at Wrightson and other private economists have had making up their own minds since the Fed in May set the stage for a meeting-by-meeting approach from there, the firm told clients: “We wouldn’t have been surprised if the Fed had chosen to tighten again this month, but a majority of FOMC members, including the leadership, seemed to favor a pause.” That at least appears to be the latest "consensus" across the community of Fed watchers who've been either doubling down on longstanding calls, switching them, or - often in the same breath - throwing their hands and saying anything could happen. With still-too-hot inflation riding their heels but abundant uncertainty about both the economic outlook and the lagged effects of 10 rate hikes since March 2022, a breather from increases looks to be in the cards when the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting concludes Wednesday. June 13 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials sit down Tuesday for their first meeting in 15 months with no pre-determined interest rate hike on the table in what amounts to the debut gathering of the "will-they-or-won't-they" era.
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